Why Taiwan Matters
A review of Kerry Brown's latest book
Kerry Brown has produced the most accessible and informative primer on Taiwan that is available to the market. A British historian, professor, and former diplomat, Mr. Brown possesses insights into Taiwan that few other people can claim to have. Why Taiwan Matters is a testament to this collection of lifelong knowledge and experience, and, as such, provides a comprehensive overview of Taiwan’s tumultuous history, robust political environment, and rich culture. The book centers on Taiwan’s endurance as a rebellious entity and how it has survived through the centuries to become one of the most innovative and vibrant democracies on the globe today. More importantly though, Mr. Brown elucidates the complex triangular relationship between Taiwan, China, and the United States, and how the Sino-American contest in East Asia has resulted in Taiwan finding itself “at the heart of arguably the greatest geopolitical challenge of the twenty-first century.”
As Mr. Brown writes in no uncertain terms, the road to Taiwan’s peace and security “runs through Beijing.” The sooner the world, especially the West, understands this fact, the better informed we are to make decisions regarding this highly sensitive affair. This isn’t to say that Taiwan has no input in the matter – in fact, Taiwan is increasingly becoming detached from China as the generations pass on. A distinct Taiwanese identity, which has always existed in different forms, has emerged with greater vigor, especially after the pro-democracy reforms which started in the late 1980s and flourished in the mid-nineties with the election of Lee Teng-hui, frequently referred to as Taiwan’s “father of democracy.” (Fun fact, Lee Teng-hui is an Iowa State alumni).
What Mr. Brown does so well in this book, though, is combine style with sound scholarship. In a methodical and systematic manner, he outlines everything that one would need to know if they were approaching Taiwan for the first time in a way that is not pretentious nor unscrupulous. Starting with an introduction to the people and life of Taiwan, he proceeds to delicately explore Taiwan’s past. The Dutch, Spanish, and Portuguese all dipped their feet on the island and would have been able to make more permanent settlements if they hadn’t eventually been upset by the rise of the Qing Dynasty in the 1640’s, which led to the remaining colonial presence being expelled by rebels of the Qing rulers in 1662.
Moreover, Mr. Brown notes that the relationship China and Taiwan shared in the past is remarkably similar to the present moment. He writes, “In a striking parallel to the situation in the twentieth century, the mainland [Qing] leaders saw Taiwan as a centre for rebels, groups faithful to the old order fighting to see its restoration. Most of these rebels were of the dominant Han ethnicity rather than Manchus, giving their defiance an extra level of significance.”
Fast-forward to today, with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan upholding a more pro-independence platform and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rulers on the mainland asserting the exact opposite. Just like the Manchu rulers of the Qing Dynasty, the CCP and Chinese leader Xi Jinping see Taiwan “like a small dagger pointed threatningly at the throat of China” and reunification as a necessary goal to achieve Chinese “national rejuvenation,” in Xi’s words. To put it differently, reunification would be the ultimate reward for Xi and his potent brand of nationalist populism, which has turned up the heat on the “Taiwan question” considerably over the past decade.
This situation is precisely where the book earns its title. Taiwan matters enormously because of its inevitable collision course with China and the global impact such a collision would have. The struggle over Taiwan is not just a tug-of-war between two countries committed to their own nationalism – it is also a struggle for economic and geopolitical influence.
Taiwan’s incredibly successful Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), for example, “produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones” according to The Economist. This might make China weary to launch a campaign of reunification given its crucial economic ties to the island, but as Brown notes, it might actually be an incentive for Xi to make a move sooner rather than later. “Lose-lose this might be” Mr. Brown writes, but “in Beijing’s eyes, at least, it doesn’t cede any advantages to its competitors.”
Mr. Brown also explains how this sets the stage for a conflict with the United States, and details how Taiwan's relations with both countries can lead the world to either continued peace or utter catastrophe. China, now the second most powerful nation on earth, is in a much stronger position to become a regional hegemon in Asia than it was in decades prior. If there is one theme to take from the book, it is the importance of keeping the current “status-quo.” According to Mr. Brown, “anything else is insanity.”
To avoid great power war, the US needs to be very careful in not recognizing an independent Taiwanese state. It also needs to give China the impression that it has vital interests with Taiwan that the US may or may not protect (which has been the policy for decades). While the difficulty of this practice is obvious, it is the only mechanism in place that has worked thus far in avoiding conflict. Any slight deviation from this policy could spell disaster not only for the countries involved, but for the entire world.
Mr. Brown takes readers through a case study on what would happen if the US suddenly changed its position on Taiwan and explains how Beijing would likey react. He notes that because of China’s close proximity to the island, China would have the military advantage. Chinese leadership would likely impose a blockade on Taiwan and press the leadership to make a decision: “capitulate and survice? Or fight and perish?” Sure, the US military could get involved, but at what cost? At the heart of the Taiwan issue is the potential for escalated, protracted conflict between the US and China, which could ultimately result in the fatal consequence of nuclear war.
But Mr. Brown makes clear that there still lies hope for this intense competition. Through good diplomacy, careful politics, and a “defence of the stalemate”, we can continue economic and cultural exchange all the while preventing an extremely dangerous conflict.
If you have ever taken interest in Taiwan or China, or are simply someone who is interested in history and politics, this book will make an excellent addition to the bookshelf. It balances rigor with literary flair and is a solid introduction to the island that will determine the outlook of our century.
Watch my interview with Kerry Brown here.
Rating: 9/10